Steel Price Trend Forecast in July 2021

Market: drifting weak demand, steel prices shock slump

Supply: leak less than expected, supply high

Demand: off-season effect obviously, inventory from down to up

Cost: high and volatile raw material, cost support stronger

Macro: macro for stabilizing price, hype is restricted

Comprehensive view: this month, the domestic steel market demand is into the traditional off-season.

The demand side, as the site concentration to start over, superposition of high temperature and rainy weather.

The influence of steel end demand is weakness as a whole. Effect on the supply side, their production has not appeared.

The domestic crude steel production remain high, supply side not seen shrinking, the supply and demand.

Since the middle of June, domestic steel inventories appeared inflection point. At the same time,

the policy surface frequently uttered his voice, the relevant ministries to strengthen controls,hit the steel market speculation,

Lead to black futures high, also on spot prices have a negative impact.

In June, domestic steel prices turbulence downward trend, and we agreed last month's forecast trend.

In retrospect, the domestic steel prices, since mid-may peak appeared two waves,

respectively is in late may touch "low", and "high touch" in middle of June,

the price fluctuation range narrowed, sustaining the strength of the strong trend.

In July, after the market is still uncertain. On the one hand, the middle and lower of the

Yangtze river region is at the end of ;rainy weather, but very hot weather affects the construction.

Demand side temporarily difficult to moderate, and tight finances will ease;

On the other hand, the production cost is high, steel mills profit was suppressed, production enthusiasm will be dropped,

The late supply side pressure or slowed down. Therefore, two-way weaker on both ends of the supply and demand situation,

The domestic steel prices will also remain range bound. It is important to note that the late variable international factors,

The risk of commodities such as iron ore prices fell back, once the raw material prices, cost support center of gravity will move down.

Overall, the oscillation of the experienced in June after the callback, demand and raw material prices will decide the spot price fluctuations.

We judge for domestic steel prices in July 2021 as: weakening of supply and demand, price is under pressure.

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